(The Center Square) – A new poll from Wisconsin shows voters ages 50 and older are split over the two presidential candidates, but overall give former President Donald Trump a 2-point lead.
Interest group AARP, formerly known as the American Association of Retired Persons, hired Fabrizio-Ward and Impact Research to survey a total of 1,052 likely voters between Sept. 11 and 14. The statewide representative sample consists of 600 likely voters ages 18+ and an oversample of 452 likely voters ages 50 and older, yielding an observable sample of 800 likely voters ages 50+ with a +/-3.5 margin of error.
When taking the entire sample of 50+ voters, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45%.
But when breaking down the sample, seniors 65 or older favor Harris by 6 points, while voters between the ages of 50 and 64 favor Trump by 10 points.
Citizens ages 50+ make up the majority of the electorate in both Wisconsin at 58%, and across the nation. Fifty-five percent of Wisconsin voters in the 2020 election and 61% of voters in the 2022 midterm elections were ages 50 and older.
“Not only is the motivation higher among older age groups, those older age groups are bigger,” Jeff Liszt from Impact Research said. “There are just a lot of older voters in Wisconsin who are in play, up for grabs, and who are going to decide all of these contests.”
Economic issues and immigration and border security are the most important issues among older Republican and Independent voters, while abortion and threats to democracy are the most important to Democrat voters.
But candidates’ policies regarding Social Security could ultimately determine the choice of many older voters, with 92% of all older voters surveyed saying they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who protects Social Security, and 79% reporting a higher likelihood of voting for a candidate who opposes cuts to the program.
“It really doesn’t matter if you’re a Republican, Independent, or Democrat–Social Security is an important issue to older voters,” Bob Ward from Fabrizio-Ward said. “These numbers are high regardless of party. Republicans, Independents, and Democrats are going to be looking for candidates who are going to be defending and protecting Social Security.”
Harris has made gains over Biden in every age group, although the biggest growth in support occurred among voters ages 18 to 34. Independents and suburban voters have also gravitated towards Harris since President Joe Biden dropped out in July. While she is stronger with women voters than with men, Harris’ relative gains versus Biden are larger with men than with women, according to the survey results.
A poll from Marquette Law School last week showed Vice President Kamala Harris maintaining her edge over former president Donald Trump among likely voters, both in voting choice and favorability among Wisconsin voters surveyed.
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