US Dollar Mixed as Inflation Data Backs Smaller Fed Rate Cut

A clerk poses with US dollar banknotes at a money changer in Jakarta on May 2, 2024. (Photo by ADEK BERRY/AFP via Getty Images)

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar was mixed overall on Wednesday in choppy trading after data showed underlying inflation in the world's largest economy rose in August, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely undertake a smaller rate cut of 25 basis points later this month.

The greenback posted gains against the Swiss franc, sterling, and euro, pushing the dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit's worth against six currencies, 0.1% higher on the day at 101.69.

Data showed that the U.S. consumer price index grew 0.2% last month after climbing 0.2% in July. In the 12 months through August, the CPI advanced 2.5%, the smallest year-on-year rise since February 2021, and followed a 2.9% increase in July.

But excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.3% in August after rising 0.2% in July.

"The immediate takeaway is that this dramatically reduces the likelihood of a 50 basis-point rate cut in September next week," said Ben McMillan, principal and chief investment officer, at IDX Insights, in Tampa, Florida.

"That wasn't unexpected because I thought the market was pretty aggressive at pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut in September anyway. This reaffirms what the Fed is really focused on - the jobs numbers. This makes the jobs numbers, and the revisions to those numbers, even more important."

In midmorning trading, the dollar was up 0.4% against the Swiss franc at 0.85 franc, after earlier hitting a three-week high of 0.8544 following the inflation report.

Sterling dipped 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3050.

Versus the yen, the dollar hit the day's high of 142.54 yen following the CPI numbers, before sliding 0.2% to 142.15. The yen got an extra boost earlier when Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reiterated the central bank would keep raising rates if the economy and inflation justified it.

Following the U.S. data, the rate futures market has priced in just a 15% chance of a 50-bp easing by the Fed at the September meeting, down from about 33% late on Tuesday, LSEG calculations showed.

The market though still factored in more than 100 bps in cuts this year.

Currency              

bid

prices at

11

September

​ 01:32

p.m. GMT

Descripti RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD Pct High Low

on Close Change Bid Bid

Previous

Session

Dollar 101.71 101.64 0.07% 0.34% 101.81 101.

index 26

Euro/Doll 1.1016 1.102 -0.04% -0.21% $1.1055 $1.1

ar 004

Dollar/Ye 142.32 142.46 -0.07% 0.93% 142.5 140.

n 72

Euro/Yen 1.1016​ 156.95 -0.11% 0.74% 157.01 155.

51

Dollar/Sw 0.8502 0.847 0.4% 1.04% 0.8544 0.84

iss 23

Sterling/ 1.3052 1.308 -0.2% 2.57% $1.3112 $1.3

Dollar 047​

Dollar/Ca 1.3597 1.361 -0.08% 2.59% 1.3617 1.35

nadian 74

Aussie/Do 0.6648 0.6653 -0.05% -2.48% $0.6674 $0.6

llar 636

Euro/Swis 0.9364 0.9332 0.34% 0.84% 0.9381 0.93

s 08

Euro/Ster 0.8439 0.8424 0.18% -2.64% 0.8446 0.84

ling 22

NZ 0.6124 0.615 -0.39% -3.06% $0.6155 0.61

Dollar/Do 15

llar

Dollar/No 10.8589​ 10.8407 0.17% 7.14% 10.878 10.7

rway 894

Euro/Norw 11.9628 11.9468 0.13% 6.58% 11.9729 11.9

ay 198

Dollar/Sw 10.3956 10.3734 0.21% 3.26% 10.4138 10.3

eden 269

Euro/Swed 11.4521 11.4313 0.18% 2.94% 11.4692 11.4

en 115

(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Oguh Chibuike; Editing by Angus MacSwan)