Is Li Xi in Trouble? Insights From the CCP Politburo Meeting

Dark clouds loom over Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. (Feng Li/Getty Images)

[People News] On December 8, following established protocol, the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China convened to discuss economic work for 2026 and reviewed the so-called "Comprehensive Rule of Law Work Regulations". Xi Jinping chaired the meeting. How does this meeting differ from the Politburo meetings held during the same period in 2024 and 2023, which focused on the agenda for the upcoming year? There are five notable differences:

First, the official media reports did not indicate whether a meeting of the Politburo Standing Committee was held prior to this session, nor did they mention whether reports were received regarding the work of the National Supervisory Commission and the preparations for the fifth plenary session of the 20th Central Commission for Discipline Inspection in 2025.

In contrast, reports from the Politburo meetings in December 2024 and December 2023 included mentions of the National Supervisory Commission and the preparations for the upcoming plenary session of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.

Recently, rumours have circulated that Li Xi, the Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and Ma Xingrui, the former Secretary of Xinjiang, both missed the Politburo study session, raising suspicions that they may be under investigation. Now, the customary report from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has not occurred, and CCTV news did not provide any footage of the meeting. Does this further suggest that Li Xi is in a "high-risk" situation? Moreover, what implications does the "disappearance" of Li Xi, a close ally of Xi Jinping, have for Xi and his standing?

Second, the report indicated that the meeting concluded that the overall economic performance in the past year was "generally stable, with progress amid stability," and asserted that "the social situation remains stable," a notably positive statement that has not been observed in the past two years.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) conveys that many issues have arisen in society over the past year, with various unstable factors at play. Nevertheless, the CCP has managed to maintain overall control through high-pressure measures.

The true state of economic development and living conditions is best understood by the Chinese people residing in mainland China. They are witnessing a significant outflow of foreign investment, the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises, and intense competition across various sectors, making it increasingly challenging for businesses to generate profits. In this environment, despite the CCP's calls to stimulate domestic demand, many Chinese citizens, lacking sufficient security, are becoming increasingly hesitant to spend and are finding it harder to make ends meet. Social unrest is on the rise, with frequent incidents of 'loyalty demonstrations.' Can the Chinese populace, pushed to the edge, continue to endure until 2026?

Third, the term 'comprehensive deepening of reform' has been replaced with 'deepening the construction of a unified national market.'

In December 2023, the phrase 'comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up' was mentioned; at the Politburo meeting in December 2024, it was stated that 'further comprehensive deepening of reform... expanding domestic demand.' However, this year's statement emphasises 'better coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade challenges... deepening the construction of a unified national market, while continuously preventing and addressing risks in key areas.'

This suggests that following the United States' strategic shift to comprehensively contain the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the CCP's senior leadership has recognised the challenging international environment. They understand that the 'comprehensive deepening of reform' will inevitably affect their political interests. Consequently, they are no longer inclined to maintain a facade, opting instead to accelerate the creation of a unified national market to address issues arising from foreign trade. This has raised concerns among the public about a potential return to a 'closed-door policy' by the CCP. It raises the question: how many people, who have already gained an understanding of the outside world, would be willing to revert to the conditions of several decades ago?

Fourth, there has been a new emphasis on 'strengthening the centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee,' a phrase that has not appeared in the past two years.

Reports this year indicate that 'the meeting emphasised the need to strengthen the Party's leadership, particularly the centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee.' In 2024, it was stated, 'We must enhance the Party's leadership over economic work and ensure that the various decision-making directives from the Party Central Committee are effectively implemented.' In 2023, it was noted, 'We must uphold and strengthen the Party's overall leadership and ensure high-quality implementation of the major decision-making directives from the Party Central Committee regarding economic work.'

This shift in language corresponds with previous statements from state media, where numerous high-ranking officials, including Xi Jinping (Xi Jinping), have repeatedly highlighted the importance of 'upholding the centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee.' This further confirms that after the Fourth Plenary Session, the CCP has officially reverted to 'collective leadership,' and the diminishing of Xi's power status is an undeniable reality.

Fifth, the reports do not address the situation of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection but instead focus on the 'Comprehensive Rule of Law Work Regulations' and their significance.

This year's meeting differed from the previous two years in that it did not address the work of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) and the National Supervisory Commission over the past year, as explained in the first point. However, the report did highlight the significance of the 'Comprehensive Rule of Law Work Regulations.' During Hu Jintao's leadership, he often emphasised the importance of governing the country according to the law. In November 2002, the report from the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China even stated that 'governing the country according to the law is an important aspect and goal of political construction.' The renewed focus on this issue raises the question: Does it suggest that true power does not lie with Xi Jinping?

Furthermore, in the previous two years, discussions about the CCDI and the National Supervisory Commission always included references to the 'two establishments' and 'two safeguards.' However, this year, these terms were absent. Instead, the emphasis was placed on the need to fully implement Xi's rule of law thought, 'firmly grasping the correct political direction of comprehensively governing the country according to the law,' among other points.

The pressing question is: how can officials at all levels of the Communist Party, who have failed to adhere to the Constitution for decades, possibly take this regulation seriously? How can they genuinely uphold the rule of law? How many people will actually believe the Communist Party's attempts to deceive the public once again?

(First published in People News) △