National Day Reception: Xi Jinping’s Grim Expression—Is He Already Aware of the Fourth Plenum Decision?

Dark clouds loom over Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. (Feng Li/Getty Images)

[People News] On the evening of September 30, the reception celebrating the 76th anniversary of the founding of the PRC was held. CCP leader Xi Jinping attended and delivered a speech. During Xi’s first two terms, such receptions were organised by the State Council, and the keynote speech was given by Premier Li Keqiang. However, after Xi forcibly secured a third term at the 20th Party Congress, from 2023 onward, official CCP media no longer mentioned who hosted the event. Instead, Xi delivered the speech himself, satisfying his desire to take the spotlight and assert his “one authority” status.

From 2023 to the present, Xi has spoken at the National Day reception three times. Compared with previous years, in the context of widespread rumours about his loss of military and party power, what changes are visible in Xi this year?

The first notable change is Xi’s demeanour: he appeared grim and expressionless upon entering, showing no smile, as if suppressing strong inner emotions.

CCTV footage shows the first shot of Xi as he enters, waving to the audience. However, his facial expression indicates displeasure and low spirits, so the camera quickly shifts to the attendees. When the camera returns to Xi and the standing committee members behind him, Xi still wears a sullen expression. Upon reaching the main table, he waves again, his expression softening slightly, as if forcing a smile, but genuine happiness remains absent.

Notably, aside from Xi’s lack of smile, other CCP officials are mostly expressionless as well. On this so-called “good day,” which should be “joyous and festive,” Xi’s grim face and the officials’ blank expressions resemble a mourning ceremony—an ill omen for the CCP. It seems that those at the top are mentally preparing for the Party’s decline.

Comparing with Xi’s demeanour at the 2023 reception: CCTV gave nearly seven seconds of footage of Xi waving upon entering, with a slight upward curl of the lips, appearing self-satisfied and enjoying the adulation.

At the 2024 reception, there was no footage of Xi waving; he walked in smiling slightly and nodding. The absence of a waving shot may be linked to rumours from the Third Plenum that Xi’s serious illness caused shifts in high-level power. The presence of CCP elders at the reception, with Wen Jiabao and Li Ruihuan seated on Xi’s left and right, seems to underscore this point.

So why does Xi appear particularly grim this year? Recently, the CCP Politburo meeting confirmed the schedule for the Fourth Plenum and the documents to be submitted for review from October 20 to 23, namely the draft “Recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development.” The news also emphasised that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, economic and social development must “resolutely safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee and the centralised, unified leadership.”

It is worth noting that in Xi’s September 30 speech, the opening paragraph emphasised “we must unite more closely around the Party Central Committee.” This wording had not appeared in previous years.

In 2024, rumours suggest Xi’s speech contained the phrase “resolutely safeguard the authority of the Party Central Committee and the centralised, unified leadership.” In 2023, his speech at the reception included neither this phrasing nor “we must unite more closely around the Party Central Committee,” because Xi’s power was still firmly in hand.

In the past, other officials would say, “unite around the Party Central Committee with Xi Jinping at the core.” Now Xi himself says this. Does this imply the existence of a new “Party Central Committee”? Does it suggest that Xi is already aware that the Fourth Plenum will officially confirm rumours of his loss of power and declining status?

Indeed, for anyone in an authoritarian country who has once tasted supreme power, losing it—especially having it stripped away—is undoubtedly difficult to endure. This is one of the hallmarks of Communist and authoritarian regimes. Historically, no CCP leader has ended well; will Xi be an exception?

(Exclusive first report from People News)