Blogger “Zhang Qi Business Talk – OFFICIAL” said in a 2024 lecture: If China’s housing prices collapse, 70% of the wealth of ordinary Chinese people will vanish into thin air. Moreover, real estate is tied to more than 100 industries. (Video screenshot)
[People News] All Chinese people who firmly believed that having a home meant wealth, meant a future, now face the pain of shrinking wealth and broken dreams in light of the CCP’s official release of August housing market data. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics of the CCP announced the latest housing price data for 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide in August, showing that the sales prices of commercial residential properties in first-tier cities — including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen — continued to decline month-on-month, with Beijing’s decline ranking first in the nation. Analysts pointed out that these data prove the official rescue policies have completely failed, and that China’s housing prices will continue to fall at an accelerating pace. Some netizens said that the decline in Beijing’s housing prices marks the complete collapse of the carefully woven illusion by the authorities.
Beijing Becomes the Most Dangerous Bubble-Burst Sample
In August, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities fell 0.1% month-on-month, with Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen falling 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively. In the second-hand housing market, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell 1.0% month-on-month, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen falling 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively.
Official data show that Beijing’s housing price declines, both for new and second-hand homes, ranked first in the nation. This has sparked widespread attention and discussion in the market.
Financial blogger “Tom Finance Perspective” stated: In August 2025, Beijing’s housing market collapse ranked first nationwide! Whether new homes or second-hand homes, price declines lead the entire country. This news is like a heavy hammer striking the chest of every mortgage-burdened person. Those who once believed that owning a home meant a future suddenly found that their most valuable asset is depreciating at a visibly rapid speed. The carefully woven illusion by the authorities has completely collapsed. The continuous decline of Beijing’s housing prices, even ranking as the “King of Decline” among 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide, means that the city once regarded by countless people as a land of wealth dreams is now collapsing first. Beijing’s housing prices leading the decline nationwide shows that this “faith capital” of China’s housing market is becoming the most dangerous bubble-burst sample.
“The sky has collapsed! Along three stops of Beijing’s Subway Line 10 to the Third Ring Road, housing prices fell from over 4 million to 830,000.” (Video screenshot)
A Plunge of One Million Yuan in Two Months
“Tom Finance Perspective” pointed out that official data show housing prices in China’s four first-tier cities further accelerated downward in August, at a pace noticeably faster than that of second- and third-tier cities. Among them, Beijing had the largest decline, possibly the first time in history Beijing’s housing prices led the fall among major cities nationwide.
Some specific cases presented a more direct demonstration of the drop. According to public information from the mainland real estate platform “Beike Zhaofang,” Anzhenli community in Chaoyang District, North Third Ring Road, currently has an average listed price of 68,000 RMB per square meter. However, one seller listed a three-bedroom, 75-square-meter unit for only 2.81 million RMB, or about 37,000 RMB per square meter. In addition, a 104-square-meter three-bedroom unit in Rongze Jiayuan, Changping District, was still selling for 4.8–4.9 million RMB in June, but by August only sold for 3.85 million RMB — a plunge of over 1 million RMB in just two months, a drop of 21%.
Analysis: Data Declare Beijing’s Rescue Policy a Failure
According to “Tom Finance Perspective,” Beijing’s second-hand housing prices had been falling continuously for 19 months since March 2023, with only a slight rebound after the official introduction of new policies on September 30 last year. However, prices turned downward again in April this year, and in August the decline expanded to 1.2%. The authorities clearly had the most up-to-date data, and in an effort to stabilize housing prices, Beijing lifted purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road on August 5. Yet, the data after one month of this new policy proved far from ideal.
According to multiple authoritative media and institutions, Beijing’s second-hand housing online transactions in August totaled 13,331 units, down about 7.8% from 15,575 units in July, and down about 7.2% year-on-year from August 2024.
The blogger believes these data seem to declare that the rescue policy introduced on August 5 has completely failed.
“Tom Finance Perspective” further argued that loan data clearly show Chinese citizens overall have lost confidence in the housing market. Data reveal that in August, both monthly and cumulative new housing loans hit a 10-year low, even lower than in 2024. In August last year, new housing loans already dropped 50%, but this year fell another 80% on top of that — hitting the lowest level in the past decade, a shocking number.
He said this matches the public’s actual experience. Even in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, if sellers don’t lower prices further below the minimum transaction price, homes are nearly unsellable. Many homeowners, facing cash flow breakage, have been forced to auction their properties — a phenomenon that is not rare.
He further explained that the logic behind this phenomenon is not hard to understand: When people are optimistic about the housing market, they will use leverage and debt as much as possible to hold property, hoping to gain more when prices rise. This is reflected in data as a large increase in new household loans. Conversely, when people are pessimistic, they sell extra property to reduce debt, or “downgrade” to a smaller property to ease the burden. Although some buyers take out new loans, sellers are simultaneously paying back loans — a debt transfer. On a macro scale, this is reflected as new household loans continuously hitting new lows.
Expert: The Real Estate Bubble Has Been Blown Too Large
Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said in August that the overall level of China’s housing prices in 2020–2021 was unprecedented in the past 50 years among major economies.
Zhu had been warning of a potential serious real estate bubble in China since 2016. He pointed out that from 2017 to 2019, housing prices in many lower-tier cities had already peaked. “The bubble has been blown far too large! Everyone is worried about a collapse, but why did no one worry about the bubble before the collapse? The bigger the bubble, the harder the crash. We are indeed experiencing this process.”
He once stated that in China’s first-tier cities, the ratio of housing prices to average income reached 40 to 50 times, far exceeding the international average of 10 to 20 times. The ratio of housing prices to annual rent even reached 70 to 80 times at the peak of the bubble. By these two measures, the real estate bubble levels in 2021 in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong far exceeded those of Tokyo and Osaka during Japan’s bubble era.
A blogger said: In August this year, the area with the largest housing price drop in Beijing was Yanjiao, plummeting 71% with still no one willing to take over. (Video screenshot)
Nationwide Market Weakness Confirms Morgan Stanley’s Forecast
The sluggish trend of China’s housing market is continuing nationwide. In August, the price of newly built homes nationwide dropped 0.3% month-on-month, the same as in July, continuing the trend of persistent weakness since May 2023. The second-hand housing market is also under pressure: among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 57 cities saw month-on-month declines, and 65 cities saw year-on-year declines. Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell 3.5% year-on-year, in second-tier cities by 5.2%, and in third-tier cities by as much as 6.0%.
Financial blogger “Dan Xiaohuang” lamented that among the 70 cities, Beijing saw the steepest drop in second-hand housing prices. He pointed out that since first-tier city homes were originally very expensive, they had more room to fall, and thus these cities are now entering a “catch-up decline” mode.
He concluded that official data also confirmed Morgan Stanley’s earlier forecast. Morgan Stanley had previously predicted that if stronger rescue measures were not introduced, China’s second-hand housing prices would continue to accelerate downward.
According to CRIC Real Estate Research’s data released on August 31, in August this year, the sales amount handled by the top 100 real estate companies was 207.04 billion RMB, down 1.9% month-on-month and 17.6% year-on-year. This marked the sixth consecutive month of sales declines for the top 100 real estate companies. The cumulative sales amount fell 13.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points.
According to Bloomberg, China’s real estate market downturn has lasted more than four years, and since the second quarter of this year, home sales have declined further. The intensifying price decline also shows that the effect of stimulus measures introduced a year ago is weakening, deepening market concerns about deflation.
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