March 11, 2023: Senior members of the CCP’s Central Military Commission line up to take the oath at the National People’s Congress. From right to left: Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Li Shangfu, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, Zhang Shengmin. (Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
[People News] On July 23, pro-Communist media in Hong Kong suggested that Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders would be vacationing and working in Beidaihe for two weeks in early August. Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hinted that Zhongnanhai would hold an important closed-door meeting in August, which has been interpreted by observers as a reference to the Beidaihe meeting. As major international media discuss the fluctuations in Xi Jinping's power, this year's Beidaihe meeting stands out as especially noteworthy.
Historically, the Beidaihe meeting has garnered significant attention, viewed as a gathering for high-ranking CCP officials to convene and make crucial decisions during their summer breaks. After former General Secretary Hu Jintao assumed power, he declared in 2003 that the central leadership would no longer conduct business in Beidaihe. Since Xi Jinping took office, the political significance of Beidaihe has diminished further, although the recuperation system remains intact.
Pro-Communist media outlet Sing Tao Daily reported on July 23 that central leaders would engage in vacation-style work in Beidaihe for two weeks in early August. The question remains: will there be a meeting in Beidaihe this year or not?
Political commentator Wen Zhao remarked in his program that the Beidaihe location is generally unfavourable for the current CCP leaders. This venue was specifically designed to allow political elders to exert their influence, thereby imposing limitations on the current leadership outside of established institutions. If discussions are taking place, it is undoubtedly detrimental to those in power; the more significant the topics under discussion, the more adverse the implications for the current rulers.
Since March of this year, there has been increased attention in international political circles regarding Xi Jinping's health issues and the shifting dynamics of power. In the opaque political landscape of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), speculation has arisen about what will transpire at this year's Beidaihe meeting.
According to Katsuji Nakazawa, a columnist for 'Nikkei Asia', sources have revealed that during the summer Beidaihe meeting in 2023, Xi Jinping faced unprecedented criticism from a group of retired CCP elders. This criticism came in the wake of several tumultuous events, including a corruption scandal within the CCP Rocket Force, the downfall of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, and the crisis involving the Evergrande Group, which left the elders deeply concerned.
Last year's Beidaihe meeting extended longer than anticipated. By August 16, Politburo members Liu Guozhong and Wang Yi had made appearances, indicating that the meeting had concluded, yet the seven members of the Standing Committee were notably absent. At that time, rumours suggested that Xi Jinping, Cai Qi, and Li Qiang were reflecting on their actions during the meeting. It was reported that the elders believed Xi had made significant errors, but no one sought to hold him accountable or suggested that he should resign immediately.
On August 15 of last year, the party media outlet 'Qiushi Net' published a 'statement' by Xi Jinping regarding the formulation of the 'Decision' at the Third Plenary Session. In his remarks, Xi implied that he had secured the support of the party's elders. The article stated: 'On May 7, 2024, the draft of the 'Decision' was circulated within a certain scope to solicit opinions from veteran party members... Everyone unanimously agreed that the draft of the 'Decision' maintained the correct political direction...'
In a signed article described as 'confessional', Xi Jinping asserts that the decisions made during the Third Plenary Session have received approval from senior party officials, indicating that he still needs to consult with the party elders on significant decisions.
Overseas commentator Cai Shenkun noted in a post on X on August 15 last year that Xi Jinping's ability to govern is under widespread scrutiny both within and outside the party. Whenever political elders have the chance to speak, they tend to express their views in various ways. Before and during the Third Plenary Session, surviving senior officials at the national level provided numerous opinions on the decisions made and on Xi Jinping himself, often in a gentle and diplomatic manner. Previously, Xi could attribute economic issues to Li Keqiang, but following the 20th National Congress, it is Xi's own faction that holds power, and he must take on the corresponding responsibilities. Furthermore, the Third Plenary Session cannot silence the political elders; once one person voices their concerns, others are likely to follow suit and express their grievances.
Reports indicate that the elders raised approximately 30 points of feedback, including recommendations to reinstate the collective decision-making system; to appoint leaders with a solid understanding of economics and extensive experience in provincial and municipal party and government roles; and to ensure that cadre selection and appointments are inclusive rather than limited to small circles or cliques. The elders also emphasised that the candidate for the Minister of Public Security should not be drawn from within the public security system and suggested the dissolution of the Special Police Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, reflecting significant dissatisfaction with Wang Xiaohong's leadership of the bureau.
Wen Zhao highlighted that following the pandemic, the Beidaihe meeting has actually gained momentum, suggesting that since 2022, the overall political landscape at the top has been evolving in a manner that is increasingly unfavourable to Xi Jinping.
During the 2024 National Day reception, Wen Jiabao took the seat of chief elder next to Xi Jinping.
As for this year's Beidaihe meeting, which elder is in charge? Wen Zhao indicated that the answer is already clear.
(Originally published by People News) △
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