Xi Jinping travelled to Yangquan, Shanxi, to lay flowers at the monument commemorating the Hundred Regiments Offensive. The weather that day was gloomy and foggy. (Video screenshot)
[People News] Xi Jinping skipped the BRICS meeting in Brazil for the first time and instead visited Yangquan, Shanxi, on July 7 to tour the Hundred Regiments Offensive Memorial Hall. State media photos showed overcast skies and heavy fog. On the same day, a high-profile ceremony and exhibition marking the 88th anniversary of the outbreak of the War of Resistance Against Japan was held in Beijing. Politburo Standing Committee member and Director of the General Office of the CCP, Cai Qi, attended and gave a speech. Notably, compared to previous years, the number and ranking of officials attending the Beijing event were significantly higher, sparking speculation.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Xi Jinping visited Yangquan, Shanxi, on the afternoon of July 7. At the memorial plaza for the Hundred Regiments Offensive, he laid a flower basket in tribute to the fallen soldiers and toured the memorial museum. CCTV footage revealed a gloomy, misty day. Xi, accompanied by six officials, stood before the memorial in the fog, evoking a bleak and solitary atmosphere.
Commenters online noted the ominous weather: “Dark clouds block the sun—this can’t be a good sign!”
Others observed, “Why does the Chairman look so dazed?”
One netizen lamented: “China lost in the fog, with no direction.”
Meanwhile, Beijing hosted a high-level ceremony and exhibition for the 88th anniversary of the full-scale invasion by Japan. Cai Qi attended and delivered remarks. According to state media, attendees included Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Propaganda Minister Li Shulei, Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong, NPC Vice Chairman Zhang Qingwei, State Council Secretary-General Wu Zhenglong, CPPCC Vice Chairman Wang Yong, and Chief of the Joint Staff Department Liu Zhenli. Beijing Party Secretary Yin Li presided.
Compared to previous years, the number and rank of attendees this year were notably higher.
State media archives show that the 87th anniversary ceremony was hosted by Yin Li and attended by Vice Propaganda Minister Hu Heping, Beijing Mayor Yin Yong, Beijing NPC Standing Committee Chairman Li Xiuling, CPPCC Chairman Wei Xiaodong, and Deputy Party Secretary Liu Wei—all primarily Beijing officials.
The 86th anniversary had the same attendees as the 87th. However, for the 85th anniversary—traditionally marked more grandly on 5- and 10-year intervals—Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning attended and spoke. Others present included Politburo member and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, then-Propaganda Minister Huang Kunming, NPC Vice Chairman Hao Mingjin, CPPCC Vice Chairman Zhang Qingli, and CMC member Miao Hua. Then, Beijing Party Secretary Cai Qi presided.
Du Wen, a former deputy director at the Inner Mongolia Office of Legal Affairs, now in exile in Europe, commented on his program Inside View of China that the lineup of attendees spanned major CCP systems: propaganda, political-legal, military, diplomacy, and regional authorities. Such a broad and high-level presence was highly unusual.
In contrast, Xi Jinping's visit to the memorial site in Yangquan was accompanied only by six officials, with Vice Premier He Lifeng being the highest-ranking among them. The rainy, dark skies heightened the sense of isolation and bleakness.
This unusual divergence raised speculation in political circles. Some suggest that Cai Qi, Xi’s closest aide and “chief of internal affairs,” may be attempting to establish a “new central authority.”
Du Wen questioned whether Xi’s absence from the key Beijing event was a deliberate avoidance or a forced retreat: “Was it arranged for him to stay away, or did he choose to keep away? Is Cai Qi openly forming a new centre of power with core CCP leaders?” He pointed out that those attending the Beijing event are, in fact, pillars of Xi's regime.
He added that such an absence is highly symbolic and cannot be explained away as mere division of labour. “When the General Secretary is absent from a national-level event while the entire Party core gathers to elevate the occasion, it symbolically suggests the presence of two centres of power within the CCP, hinting at a potential soft split at the top.”
Historical records show Xi Jinping only attended the 77th anniversary of the war, possibly due to the symbolic alignment with the “July 7 Marco Polo Bridge Incident.” Although Xi seldom attends the yearly commemoration, the sharp contrast in state media coverage between Shanxi and Beijing this year has prompted much speculation.
The attendance of Military Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong at the Beijing event has been interpreted by some as a sign that Cai Qi is allying with them in a possible betrayal of Xi.
However, historian and commentator Dr. Zhang Tianliang of Feitian University offered a more cautious view in his program Tianliang’s Analysis. He believes such speculation might be overly optimistic. According to his analysis, Cai Qi’s speech was saturated with Xi’s signature ideological phrases.
State media reports show that Cai repeatedly mentioned Xi as the “core” and invoked slogans like the “Two Establishes,” “Two Safeguards,” and “Four Perseverances”—all key tenets of Xi Jinping Thought.
Dr. Zhang argued that if Cai Qi had used such a high-profile platform to deliver even subtle anti-Xi messages, it would be more convincing. But since his speech reaffirmed loyalty, the likelihood of a split remains uncertain.
He concluded that there is currently insufficient evidence to say that Cai Qi, Wang Xiaohong, and Zhang Youxia are working together against Xi, and that the situation warrants close observation.
Du Wen emphasised that in the CCP system, real coups never begin with slogans or open defiance. “A real coup happens silently. One day, someone simply vanishes from the news. The change comes overnight, like a quiet spring breeze blooming thousands of pear trees.”
(People News Exclusive)
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