Dong Jun's Recent Appearance Raises Eyebrows as the Chinese Military Remains in a State of Turmoil

The new Defence Minister, Dong Jun, may add new drama to the 46th image (prophecy) of the Tui Bei Tu. (Truth of the People provided the report.)

[People News] Reports indicate that the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is scheduled to take place at the end of August. There are rumours that Xi Jinping may be facing the risk of being forced to resign entirely during this session, and discussions about his potential loss of power and departure from Zhongnanhai are intensifying, adding to the unpredictability of the Communist Party's political landscape. Recently, Dong Jun, the Minister of Defence appointed by Xi Jinping, has been absent from the Shangri-La Dialogue, which has fueled further speculation about his uncertain future. Just as these rumours were gaining traction, Dong Jun unexpectedly appeared in Beijing on May 23. However, the military media's report seems to validate the rumours regarding Dong Jun's uncertain prospects, underscoring the unrest within the military and the instability of the armed forces.

According to a report on the Ministry of National Defence's website on May 23, Minister of Defence Dong Jun met with General Apirat Kongsompong, the Supreme Commander of the Royal Thai Armed Forces, who was visiting China. The report stated, "The leaders of the two countries reached a new important consensus on deepening the construction of a community of shared future for the two countries." "China is willing to work with Thailand to contribute to the construction of the China-Thailand community of shared future." During the discussions, Dong Jun referenced Xi Jinping's specific political term 'community of shared future,' but notably did not mention Xi Jinping's name or the concept of strengthening the military.

At first glance, this short message appears unremarkable; however, it is curious that the title of the preceding message, right next to it, reads 'Liu Zhenli holds talks with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army.' The content states, 'On May 22, Liu Zhenli, a member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Department, held talks with General Song Wei, the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army visiting China. The two sides exchanged views on issues of mutual concern regarding the relations between the two countries and their militaries, as well as the international and regional situation, and reached an important consensus on strengthening strategic communication and deepening joint exercises and training.' Notably, Liu Zhenli did not mention Xi Jinping's name, the concept of strengthening the military, or the 'community of shared future.'

Both news items lack images or videos and were published in the 'Authoritative Release' section of the Ministry of Defence's website on May 23. The Chinese military network prominently reprinted both articles in a notable position on the left side, with the news about Liu Zhenli appearing above and the news about Dong Jun below.

This indicates that the meeting between the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army and Liu Zhenli occurred the day before, where they finalised cooperation on strategic communication and deepening joint exercises and training. In contrast, Dong Jun's meeting with the Supreme Commander took place the following day and was purely ceremonial. What stands out is that the Ministry of Defence and the military network of the Communist Party of China published both news items on the same day and in the same format, one above the other. This arrangement of meetings and the simultaneous publication of the news are relatively rare, suggesting deeper implications.

From a news reporting perspective, the Chinese Communist Party could have reported Liu Zhenli's meeting with the Supreme Commander of the Thai Army on May 22 and Dong Jun's meeting with the same commander on May 23, which would have adhered to the principle of timeliness in journalism. However, why report both events on the same day and in the same section? The information conveyed through this layout is significant. Liu Zhenli, being a member of the Military Commission, could easily have been reported on earlier. The most plausible explanation is that Dong Jun has not safely landed, and the situation appears dire; in fact, it is possible that Liu Zhenli has already taken over Dong Jun's foreign military activities. The military is currently not in a position to comment, especially since it remains unclear whether Dong Jun's downfall has fully occurred. To maintain the appearance of stability and unity within the Chinese military, the military media chose to report both stories on the same day and in the same section.

On Tuesday (May 20), the Financial Times reported, citing five informed sources, that Dong Jun will not attend the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue. The report also indicated that the People's Liberation Army is expected to send a delegation led by lower-ranking defence officials to this year's dialogue. Dong Jun's absence from the Shangri-La Dialogue means the Chinese Communist Party will miss an opportunity for a face-to-face meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and to engage more actively in regional affairs, which is seen as quite unusual and has led to speculation about Dong Jun's actual circumstances.

Dong Jun, who hails from the Navy, was appointed Minister of National Defence after being recommended to Xi Jinping by Miao Hua, the former Director of the Political Department of the Communist Party of China. As Dong Jun is from Yantai, Shandong, he has also been associated with Peng Liyuan's faction. However, due to Xi Jinping's diminishing influence within the military, Dong Jun was unable to secure the titles of State Councillor and Military Commission member. Prior to Dong Jun's appointment, analysts suggested that Liu Zhenli would have been a more suitable candidate for the role. Liu Zhenli and Zhang Youxia are the only generals in the Military Commission with real combat experience from the Vietnam War, and Liu Zhenli is aligned with Zhang Youxia's faction.

On November 27, 2024, the Financial Times reported, citing former U.S. intelligence officials, that Dong Jun was under investigation for corruption. The following day, former Ministry of Defence spokesperson Wu Qian publicly refuted rumours regarding Dong Jun's downfall and notably announced that Miao Hua was under suspension for inspection. On the same day, former Chinese Navy midshipman Yao Cheng disclosed on his social media channel that Dong Jun had indeed been investigated by the military's disciplinary inspection, and that he had provided testimony detrimental to Miao Hua, which allowed him to temporarily evade trouble.

Following Dong Jun's return, military diplomatic activities have surged. Since April of this year, there have been numerous military diplomatic engagements. From April 16 to 17, Dong Jun co-hosted the ninth China-Vietnam border defence friendly exchange event with Vietnamese Minister of Defence Phan Van Giang. On April 21, Dong Jun and Wang Yi convened the inaugural ministerial meeting of the China-Indonesia Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers '2+2' dialogue mechanism in Beijing. On May 12, Dong Jun visited France and held discussions with French Minister of Defence Sébastien Lecornu. On May 13, he participated in the sixth United Nations Ministerial Meeting on Peacekeeping in Berlin, Germany, where he met with UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

Simultaneously, Liu Zhenli's military foreign affairs activities have been notably frequent. On January 8, 2025, Liu Zhenli visited Malaysia for discussions with the Malaysian military. On the 9th and 10th, he travelled to Indonesia, where he met with Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto and National Armed Forces Commander Agus Subiyanto in Jakarta. On April 9, Liu Zhenli also held talks with the Chief of the UK Defence Staff, Sir Patrick Sanders, who was on an official visit to China.

The military diplomacy of Liu Zhenli and Dong Jun appears to function on a dual-track system, operating independently and highlighting the internal power rifts within the Chinese Communist Party's military. Dong Jun seems to still favour Xi Jinping or is attempting to navigate between both sides. The recent meetings between Liu Zhenli and Dong Jun with the Thai military are relatively unusual. Given Dong Jun's absence from the Shangri-La Dialogue and the rumours surrounding the purging of Xi Jinping's military allies, such as He Weidong, by Zhang Youxia, Dong Jun's ambiguous positioning may likely lead to complications.

Recently, prominent social media figure Cai Shenkun disclosed that the military's extensive purge is still in progress, with rumours suggesting that Fang Yongxiang, the director of the Military Commission Office, has faced issues. If these rumours hold true, Xi Jinping's power could be significantly undermined, making a complete withdrawal highly likely. 

(This was first published by the People News)