Trump s Feint, Xi Jinping Backs Down

(People News) - Trump once again proves himself to be a master negotiator full of surprises. On February 3, Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that, following a “very friendly” call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico agreed to immediately deploy 10,000 soldiers to the U.S.-Mexico border. According to The Wall Street Journal, data from Mexico's Ministry of Defense shows that by April 2024, Mexico had already sent nearly 15,000 soldiers to its border with the United States, with a total of about 32,000 troops deployed to control migration.

On the same day, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also backed down. Trudeau posted a statement on X, saying, “I just had a pleasant call with President Trump. Canada is implementing our $1.3 billion border plan, enhancing border security with new helicopters, technology, and personnel, strengthening coordination with U.S. partners, and increasing resources to stop fentanyl inflows. Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are working and will continue to work to protect the border. Additionally, Canada has made new commitments, appointing a 'Fentanyl Czar,' designating drug trafficking groups as terrorist organizations, ensuring 24/7 border surveillance, and launching a joint Canada-U.S. task force to combat organized crime, fentanyl, and money laundering. I’ve also signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl, supported by $200 million.”

Trump announced on Truth Social that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be paused for at least 30 days. Just hours later, he reiterated his call to incorporate Canada as the 51st U.S. state.

On February 1, the White House announced a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on China, set to take effect on February 4. Trump stated that the tariffs on Mexico and Canada were primarily to pressure both countries to align with the White House on fentanyl and illegal immigration issues. The announcement sparked strong opposition from the U.S. and Canada, while China surprisingly softened its stance, refraining from its usual "wolf warrior" rhetoric. Online, many questioned why Trump was so tough on ally Canada while being relatively lenient on China, given his repeated campaign promises to impose a 60% tariff on China if elected.

In reality, Trump is playing a grand strategic game—one so intricate that many fail to grasp it. The CCP is the number one adversary of both the U.S. and the world, and Trump is fully aware of this. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump mentioned the CCP and Xi Jinping's vast ambitions. However, before tackling external threats, Trump aims to first strengthen America domestically: eliminating illegal immigration, draining the Washington swamp, eradicating the leftist DEI agenda, reshaping international organizations by withdrawing from them, and using tariffs to drive the return of American manufacturing. He also seeks to resolve conflicts in the Middle East and end the Russia-Ukraine war. In terms of regional geopolitics, the U.S. needs to regain control of the Panama Canal and address the status of Greenland, while also handling trade and national security issues at both its northern and southern borders.

Trump prefers not to resort to military action in resolving international disputes. Tariffs are his golden tool to reshape global political and economic structures. Through tariff wars and economic negotiations, America will grow stronger, while globalization—the lifeblood of the CCP—will be fragmented. Ultimately, the CCP will suffer more losses than gains. The showdown between the U.S. and the CCP is the final act, and Trump will ensure the noose tightens around the CCP’s neck.

Just 48 hours later, Trump had secured a significant victory, temporarily easing tensions with Canada and Mexico. Now, only Xi Jinping and the CCP remain, left exposed in the turbulent waves of tariff pressure. Trump declared that the U.S. would enter negotiations with the CCP within 24 hours.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that due to China’s weakening economy, Xi has signaled interest in negotiations with President Trump. This shift is also reflected in official Chinese statements. After Trump announced the 10% tariffs, the CCP did not react with its usual outrage and high-profile opposition. Instead, the Ministry of Commerce stated it would file a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO). The Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the U.S. to correct its mistakes and work with China “on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, facing issues directly, engaging in sincere dialogue, strengthening cooperation, and managing differences.” It’s evident that these statements are perfunctory. The WTO’s dispute resolution mechanisms are practically ineffective and hold little sway.

The Wall Street Journal also reported, citing insiders, that Beijing offered Trump a list of concessions in exchange for halting tariffs. The CCP’s “gifts” to Trump include addressing unfinished matters from the Phase One trade deal of early 2020, involving potentially millions of dollars in imported goods; increasing investments in areas like electric vehicle batteries; reaffirming its commitment not to devalue the yuan for competitive advantage (i.e., not manipulating the currency); and pledging to reduce exports of fentanyl precursors. Additionally, Beijing indicated it would treat TikTok as a “business issue,” distancing itself from interference and allowing ByteDance’s investors to negotiate with U.S. buyers. This move appears to respond to Trump’s demand for U.S. control over 50% of TikTok’s shares. However, whether the CCP will adopt an open stance regarding TikTok’s algorithms remains undisclosed.

Xi’s softened stance and concessions are primarily due to China’s dire economic straits. The CCP cannot withstand further turmoil. In 2024, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. exceeded $350 billion. Recently, Huo Jianguo, former head of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, remarked in an Economic Observer interview that an excessive trade surplus can lead to dissatisfaction from trade partners, triggering trade friction and diplomatic tensions. His implication: the CCP fears Trump’s tariff measures.

Mexico-China bilateral trade totaled $20.916 billion, up 13.9% year-over-year, with a trade surplus of $18.367 billion in China’s favor, up 17.07%. Much of China’s trade to the U.S. is rerouted through Mexico. Thus, U.S. tariffs on Mexico also target the Chinese economy.

Some foreign media argue that Trump’s tariff threats against allies and Western nations could create opportunities for the CCP to exploit, potentially driving U.S. allies into China’s embrace. However, this perspective is overly pessimistic.

Firstly, China is an export-driven economy. Among its three primary growth drivers, exports are the most reliable. In 2024, the U.S. remained China’s largest export market at $524.656 billion, accounting for about one-seventh of China’s total exports. Hong Kong followed at $291.14 billion, with Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India, Russia, Germany, Malaysia, and the UK trailing. By market blocs, RCEP (ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand), the U.S., EU, Hong Kong, and Taiwan together accounted for 66.2% of China’s total exports. Given this dependence, the CCP cannot afford to shift from a trade surplus to a deficit—it goes against its economic interests.

Secondly, China’s domestic demand is weak, with industrial overcapacity and persistent deflation in consumer prices. Foreign investors are withdrawing, and China’s global market opportunities and mechanisms are shrinking.

Thirdly, Western democracies are increasingly aware of China’s unfair trade practices, including massive state subsidies, intellectual property theft, and the proliferation of counterfeit, low-quality products. The CCP’s political motives in business dealings are also becoming clearer, prompting Western nations to awaken to these risks.

While tariffs may cause short-term price increases and economic disruptions in the U.S., they are beneficial in the long run, particularly in revitalizing American manufacturing. After addressing illegal immigration and the fentanyl crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump is likely to reimpose tariffs on Mexico and Canada to address trade imbalances. Major automakers like Ford and Rolls-Royce have set up plants in Canada due to cheaper labor, energy, and lower taxes. To make America stronger and bring manufacturing back home, Trump’s strategy will involve imposing tariffs externally, cutting taxes internally, expanding energy self-sufficiency, and lowering oil prices.

Only when America is strong will the CCP be forced to back down. Only when America is strong can the U.S.-China confrontation be resolved without war. This is the grand strategy Trump is executing.