Sleepless Nights in Zhongnanhai: Beijing May Face Its Worst Nightmare

U.S.-China Confrontation. (Video screenshot)

According to People News, Trump’s victory has made Beijing increasingly nervous, not only due to potential tariff threats that could further strain China’s fragile economy but also because of a more significant concern: the possibility of a U.S. strategy that favors closer ties with Russia at China’s expense, potentially distancing Moscow from Beijing.

In a Tuesday (November 12) article, Wall Street Journal senior journalist Lingling Wei writes that, based on previous interviews with sources close to the Chinese leadership, Party Chief Xi Jinping fears that Trump’s election could undermine his “brotherly relationship” with Putin, who is a strategic partner for Beijing amid U.S.-China tensions.

In her latest column, Wei notes that losing Russia could deal a significant strategic blow to Xi Jinping’s security-focused agenda, as it would mean losing a powerful ally in challenging Western nations.

During Trump’s first term in the White House, he made multiple attempts to strengthen U.S.-Russia relations. Since Biden took office, however, and with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the top leaders of the U.S. and Russia have not communicated, while the Kremlin has increasingly relied on Beijing to help Russia bypass Western sanctions and sustain the war.

Now, Trump is poised to return to the White House with an overwhelming electoral victory, with the Republican Party expected to win both houses of Congress.

Trump has already indicated that he plans to negotiate with Putin to resolve the Ukraine war.

Trump also stated that if he is re-elected, he would “break up” the China-Russia alliance. At the end of October, he publicly described the alliance between China and Russia as “dangerous” at a campaign event, adding that he is confident he could achieve the goal of “dismantling” this partnership.

“Just these signals are enough to keep Xi’s leadership team up at night,” Wei writes. “The U.S. fostering an end to the war could pave the way for rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, potentially putting Beijing in a difficult position.”

Former National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien previously told The Wall Street Journal that “if the war issue is resolved, [the White House] could try to convey to Russia that maintaining such a close relationship with a country that sees millions of acres of Russian land as its own might not be in its best interests.”

In the 1960s, China and the former Soviet Union engaged in territorial disputes, leading to military confrontation between the two.

Dissatisfied with a Report on Russia’s Economy, Xi Reportedly Called it “Utter Nonsense”

Shortly after Trump assumed the U.S. presidency in early 2017, before the trade war began, Xi Jinping made a strategic decision to ally with Moscow.

“According to sources, Tsinghua University—Xi Jinping’s alma mater—submitted a report concluding that Russia’s economy had no future, suggesting that closer ties with Russia would bring China little benefit,” Wei reveals. “Xi reportedly wrote in the report’s margins, ‘Utter nonsense.’”

Against the backdrop of Trump’s trade war with China, Beijing moved closer to Russia. Sanctions on Russia during Biden’s administration accelerated the political and economic ties between China and Russia.

With Biden stepping down and Vice President Kamala Harris stepping in to campaign, some in Beijing, as well as U.S. business and academic circles, hoped she might soften U.S. policy toward China and help reshape U.S.-China relations.

Wei states that, with the Democrats’ loss, Beijing may now be facing its worst nightmare.

(Dajiyuan reporter Lin Yan contributed to this report)