Zhou Xiaohui: Li Qiang’s Speech at the Import Expo Omits Xi, Indicating Renewed High-Level Division

The Australian Prime Minister met with the Chinese Premier during the Shanghai Import Expo. (Video screenshot)

[November 6, 2024] On the morning of November 5, Beijing time, the 7th China International Import Expo and Hongqiao International Economic Forum opened in Shanghai, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang attending the opening ceremony and delivering the keynote speech. However, it was peculiar that overseas Chinese media quickly reported on Li Qiang’s speech before noon that day, while Chinese state media remained silent.

It wasn't until after 8 p.m. Beijing time that state media such as Xinhua News Agency and People’s Daily published text reports about Li Qiang’s attendance and speech at the expo's opening, but no photos were included. The November 4 news about Li Qiang’s meeting with representatives of exhibitors and buyers at the expo was also absent from the main page of the official website, hidden instead under Li Qiang’s personal news section.

This delay of nearly 10 hours in reporting on the expo's opening and Li Qiang’s speech is clearly a sign of neglect. However, it is not simply an issue of reporting speed; it likely came from a high-level directive to downplay Li Qiang and the expo, using delay as a method. Undoubtedly, this command could only come from someone above Li Qiang, indicating the party leader's influence. But why?

Further analysis of the 7 p.m. CCTV Evening News broadcast reveals that after reporting on various stories related to the party leader, it briefly mentioned the expo and Li Qiang’s speech, as well as his meetings with foreign dignitaries. Li Qiang stated in his speech that "hosting the Import Expo is an important measure for China to expand openness and cooperation" and "China is willing to further open its vast market," but there was no mention of the party leader.

The placement of Li Qiang's speech after nearly 10 minutes of reports centered on Xi Jinping, such as his inspection of the Air Force and congratulatory messages to foreign leaders, underscores Xi’s dominance while objectively diminishing the importance of the expo and Li Qiang's speech. But why?

An additional anomaly occurred when Xinhua and People’s Daily featured "Xi Jinping’s inspection tour in Hubei" as their top story throughout the day, whereas CCTV Evening News did not mention Xi’s Hubei tour at all, instead reporting on his inspection of the airborne troops accompanied by He Weidong, which were based in Hubei. Why?

The recent Politburo meeting and high-level seminar for provincial and ministerial officials, coupled with continuous calls for reform and openness in CCP media, contrast with how the state media has downplayed the expo and Li Qiang’s remarks and activities—this is no coincidence.

I believe that the delayed state media coverage of the expo and Li Qiang’s speech, along with the prioritization of Xi’s Air Force inspection over his Hubei tour to emphasize Xi’s status, reflects the surface emergence of division within the CCP leadership.

Why do I say this? Since the Third Plenum in July, under domestic and international pressure, the CCP has consistently sent signals of major reform and openness, making the Import Expo vital for attracting foreign businesses and investors.

It is well known that the Import Expo in Shanghai was personally planned, initiated, and promoted by Xi Jinping, making it highly valued by both the CCP Central Committee and the Shanghai government. It is the world’s first state-level expo centered on imports. In his 2018 keynote at the inaugural expo, Xi said that it "must be held annually and should be elevated in quality and effectiveness."

Xi delivered opening speeches or messages at each of the five expos held from 2018 to 2022, even during the pandemic. However, last year, Xi did not attend the expo. Although Li Qiang delivered the opening remarks, he first mentioned a letter from Xi, reiterating China’s "firm determination to promote high-level openness and an open world economy," a statement widely met with skepticism.

At the time, I analyzed that Xi’s absence from the expo was likely connected to the sudden death of former Premier Li Keqiang in Shanghai. State media described Li’s death as due to a sudden heart attack during a "rest" period, but the vague reporting and mounting doubts suggested that Li Keqiang’s death might have been unnatural, fueling public suspicion of Xi’s involvement.

If Xi had a reason for missing last year’s expo, he should have attended this year’s, especially amid persistent unfavorable rumors. His attendance and meetings with foreign guests would have showcased his status.

Yet, Xi was absent again, possibly not permitted to attend. Notably, Li Qiang’s speech did not mention Xi, nor did it refer to any letter from Xi. Whether Xi did not write one or was not allowed to, remains unknown, but this omission significantly undercut Xi’s image. Li Qiang’s willingness to act in this way suggests only one possibility: Xi’s power is weakening, and another figure may be in control.

Given this context, the unusual state media behavior can be explained. With the propaganda system still under Xi’s faction's control, delaying and downplaying the expo and Li Qiang’s speech is no surprise. Reporting on Xi’s Air Force inspection rather than his Hubei tour also mitigates the embarrassment of Xi’s absence at the expo, as the military visit appears more significant.

What puzzles me is Xi’s reason for visiting Hubei during the expo. Was it voluntary, or a forced excuse? The Hubei Air Force is part of the Central Theater Command, whose commander, Wang Qiang, is trusted by Zhang Youxia. Xi’s speech contained no new insights, suggesting it was merely a public appearance.

In my view, the anomalies in state media and high-level activities, especially Xi’s absence from the expo and lack of a congratulatory letter, Li Qiang’s omission of Xi’s name in his speech, and the strange reporting, indicate that divisions within the CCP leadership are becoming increasingly visible and likely to deepen further.

Editor: Pu Shan