On October 31, 2024, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced that the aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong conducted a joint exercise in the South China Sea.(Online Screenshot)
[People News Report] Recently, there are rumors that the CCP leader has lost control of the military. Discord between commanders and instability at the rear are serious military blunders. The U.S. may have obtained more accurate intelligence. Facing the ongoing displays by the Chinese military, the U.S. seems in no hurry, with the Seventh Fleet almost devoid of aircraft carriers in recent months, as the USS George Washington has only recently arrived. With Israel’s second counterattack against Iran, the CCP military’s weak point has become fully exposed, allowing the U.S. military to prepare more confidently.
U.S. Aircraft Carrier Arrives Late
On October 29, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) arrived in the Western Pacific to participate in the Keen Sword 25 exercise, ending a months-long aircraft carrier gap for the Seventh Fleet.
In June, the U.S. military redirected the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) in the Western Pacific to the Middle East, relieving the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), which had been deployed there for an extended period. Shortly after, the USS Ronald Reagan, stationed in Japan, returned to the U.S. for partial personnel exchange with the USS George Washington, which had completed mid-term repairs. However, the USS George Washington did not promptly go to its station in Japan.
In August, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) was just deployed to the Western Pacific and was immediately required to reinforce the Middle East, preventing potential conflict. After the situation eased, the USS Theodore Roosevelt returned to the U.S.
The U.S. still had the USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and USS Nimitz (CVN 68) available in the Indo-Pacific but did not deploy them to the Western Pacific. For months, the Seventh Fleet had no carrier fleet and relied on two amphibious assault ships patrolling in rotation.
The Chinese Navy’s aircraft carriers and destroyers have been frequently active, and on October 14, it conducted exercises around Taiwan. Recently, it also publicized dual-carrier exercises in the South China Sea. However, the U.S. appears unfazed.
In September, the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) was deployed to the Atlantic, and it would have been reasonable to send it to the Middle East so the USS Abraham Lincoln could return to the Western Pacific. However, the Truman headed toward the North Atlantic, joining NATO exercises, then docked in Norway. This was a routine exercise to deter Russia, but, by contrast, the Indo-Pacific region might have seemed more pressing.
The U.S. had carriers available in the Atlantic but continued using Pacific-side carriers for Middle Eastern missions. It seems unlikely that this was due to poor planning or a lack of carriers. The most probable reason is that the U.S. has intelligence on internal issues within the Chinese military, including indications that the CCP leader no longer has full control of the armed forces.
If there is discord between Beijing’s commanders, the likelihood of initiating a conflict decreases significantly, which may have led the U.S. to redeploy its carriers away from the Western Pacific without urgently filling the gap. The USS George Washington only arrived as the U.S. election neared.
Discord Among CCP Commanders and Rear Instability
In 2024, the Chinese Navy frequently conducted exercises beyond the first island chain, and the number of Chinese military flights harassing the Taiwan Strait set new records. However, these exercises seem largely political, with the CCP trying to maintain a confrontational stance while possibly masking internal military issues, amounting to little more than posturing.
In June, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe were formally expelled from the CCP and the military, but the new Minister of Defense, Dong Jun, was not added to the Central Military Commission at the Third Plenary Session in July. The purge within the Rocket Force and the Commission's Equipment Development Department is likely still ongoing, with the aerospace military industry now taking heavy hits.
Large-scale corruption often involves extensive fraud to cover up poor-quality and underperforming weapons. In September, the CCP conducted a rare test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, likely attempting to verify the performance of the DF-31 or DF-41. The Central Military Commission may have doubts about the Rocket Force's actual capabilities.
Reports followed that Xi Jinping had lost military control, with Zhang Youxia effectively controlling the army; the CCP leader was notably absent from several important military meetings and events. Although the details are unclear, it's evident there is mutual distrust between the chairman of the Central Military Commission and senior military commanders, as well as likely between top commanders, including the two vice chairmen and other commission members.
Commander discord is a serious military blunder. Problems at the top of the command system raise questions about the army’s combat readiness, which the U.S. military undoubtedly recognizes, as do CCP generals. Most CCP generals have no real desire for war, preferring corruption and promotion, and are now even less willing to start a conflict.
Amidst commander discord, a power crisis has also emerged in Zhongnanhai, leaving control unclear. Initiating war under these conditions, with instability at the rear, would constitute a second major military blunder.
Zhongnanhai now likely lacks direct command over the military, while senior generals in Beijing’s August 1st Building may consider holding onto power independently, but it's uncertain who would fully obey whom within the military.
Such intelligence would naturally reach the Pentagon. The U.S. military’s decision to relocate its carriers away from the Western Pacific becomes understandable. There may even be a covert understanding between the U.S. and Chinese militaries to avoid conflict, with the CCP military perhaps signaling that its exercises are just for show.
The U.S. military’s lack of carrier deployment in the Western Pacific over the past few months may also reflect a deliberate attempt to reduce tensions. Of course, the U.S. has likely confirmed Beijing’s internal chaos and the CCP military’s weak points, and is now better prepared.
Iran Exposes a Weakness Similar to the CCP’s
This year, Iran launched two long-range attacks on Israel, and Israel twice countered. In its first limited airstrike, Israel destroyed the S-300 air defense radar near Iran’s nuclear facility. The second strike was much larger, seemingly eliminating Iran’s entire air defense radar system and bombing missile production sites and other key targets. Israel claimed its fighter jets could now freely enter Iranian airspace.
Military experts believe Israel’s second strike exposed Iran’s true capabilities. Its claimed long-range attack capabilities were limited, and its defensive capabilities were even worse. Iran’s S-300 air defense missile system failed again, revealing a vulnerability shared with the CCP.
The CCP bought more S-300 air defense missiles from Russia and copied them as the HQ-9 missiles. Iran’s experience in being struck suggests similar vulnerabilities in the CCP’s air defense system. The CCP has also imported a few S-400 air defense missiles from Russia, likely all deployed around Beijing, but the extent to which the S-400 improves on the S-300 is unknown.
On October 26, Israel mobilized around 100 fighter jets, showcasing its long-range airstrike capability, though still not comparable to the U.S. military. Israel lacks strategic bombers, and the ammunition its fighters can carry is limited.
On October 16, the U.S. deployed B-2 stealth bombers to strike five underground weapon storage sites of the Yemeni Houthis, reportedly using large bunker-busting bombs. This move simultaneously deterred Iran and indirectly warned the CCP. It is said that the B-2 bombers stationed in Australia participated in this long-distance strike mission; Australia is closer to China.
If B-2 bombers were to strike the Rocket Force while it was preparing, an entire missile brigade’s launchers and missiles could be destroyed in one blow, revealing a major vulnerability in the Rocket Force. On October 17, Xi Jinping inspected a Rocket Force brigade, with videos showing him in a missile launch vehicle storage room, where multiple missiles were tightly arranged, speculated to be new DF-26 missiles.
The U.S. also has many fifth-generation fighter jets, including F-22s and F-35Cs, deployed in the Middle East. The Pentagon’s redeployment of the Roosevelt and Lincoln carriers to the Middle East likely intends for the F-35Cs to gain more combat experience.
The CCP has also deployed its S-300 copies on its Type 055 and Type 052D destroyers. U.S. military aircraft have largely pinpointed the CCP’s weaknesses.
The CCP’s Defensive Carrier Show
On October 31, the CCP publicly announced the first joint exercise of its Liaoning and Shandong carriers in the South China Sea. The Liaoning first entered Philippine waters, circled around to the South China Sea, posed with the Shandong, then entered the waters east of Taiwan through the Bashi Channel for the October 14 exercise around Taiwan, finally passing through the Taiwan Strait back to Qingdao.
Chinese experts quickly boasted of the dual carriers’ offensive capabilities. However, the Russian-style carriers the CCP mimicked are not designed for offense but to expand a near-sea air defense zone. Russia’s comparable carriers replaced the Su-33 with the Mig-29, primarily for air interception.
The CCP’s carriers, equipped with J-15s modeled after the Su-33, have long struggled to conduct airstrikes. The J-15s often take off with only four air-to-air missiles, lacking anti- ship strike capability and limited in ground attack near the coast, mainly serving air defense roles to intercept nearby enemy aircraft. Together, the Liaoning and Shandong may have more air-defense carrier-based planes but remain vastly different from the offensive U.S. carrier fleet.
The photos released by the CCP Ministry of Defense show 12 J-15s flying in formation over the two carriers, seemingly emulating U.S. exercises. Notably, these 12 J-15s mainly took off from the Liaoning's deck, which only had two planes remaining on deck in the photo. The Shandong's deck had around 18 aircraft, with two on the ski-jump ramp but not airborne.
This suggests that the CCP’s so-called dual-carrier exercise was likely staged for a propaganda film with minimal actual joint training. For safety, it appears that the carriers did not attempt simultaneous takeoffs and landings. Liaoning's pilots, having more experience, mainly participated in the photo shoot, while 18 planes were placed on the Shandong, but the pilots likely stood by without flying. After Liaoning's show, the J-15s on the Shandong may have taken off and landed but likely did not meet filming requirements, as there is little video or photographic evidence.
The Fujian, a CCP carrier modeled after the U.S. military, is not yet operational, and the current two carriers lack offensive capabilities, making them potential targets. The CCP’s frigates cannot protect themselves effectively, much less their carriers. This weakness in the Chinese Navy may explain why the U.S. has been responding with amphibious assault ships for months.
Weakness in the Chinese Air Force
The October 14 Taiwan exercise exposed the CCP air force’s weakness. The Chinese fighters, supposedly armed, lack airstrike capabilities. They also have limited payload capacity, can’t carry enough air-to-air missiles, lack night-fighting abilities, and have trouble evading air defense missiles near the first island chain, severely limiting their combat effectiveness.
The S-300 and its copies are unreliable, making coastal military facilities vulnerable to U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. has dispersed its aviation bases across Guam, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Palau and is now restoring World War II airfields in the Mariana Islands to maximize air superiority against potential CCP actions.
The Washington carrier will be permanently stationed in the Western Pacific, indicating that F-35Cs will also be stationed in Japan. The U.S. had previously announced plans for F-35As, F-35Bs, and F-15EXs to be stationed in Japan, clearly targeting the CCP military’s weaknesses.
The CCP’s strategic military blunders—commander discord and rear instability—are good news for the U.S. and neighboring countries. Should the CCP begin to disintegrate, it would bring even greater reassurance.
(Transferred from Dajiyuan)
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