Poll: Voters Split on Whether Harris, Trump Have Shifted on Policy Issues

A general view inside the Minneapolis Elections & Voter Services building on September 20, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Today is the first day of early voting in Minnesota ahead of the 2024 presidential election this November. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

(The Center Square) - Voters remain divided on whether Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former president Donald Trump have shifted along the political spectrum since the last presidential election, new polling shows.

The Center Square Voters' Voice poll, conducted Oct. 2-4 with Noble Predictive Insights, asked 2,560 likely voters whether they thought candidates had become more or less moderate on national issues over the past four years.

Voters reported mixed perceptions of Harris’ current political bent, with 32% of respondents believing she has become more liberal, 24% believing she has become more moderate, 29% thinking she has stayed the same, and 14% reporting they are unsure whether Harris has changed issue positions over the past four years.

Respondents who think Harris has become more liberal in general are also likely to believe she’s moved left on every policy issue. Nearly 75% think she has become more liberal on the issue of immigration, 62% think so of abortion policy, and roughly 51% think she has on tax, inflation, climate change, and 47% gun policies. Fifty-nine percent think her overall tone has become more liberal.

The majority, 55%, of those who said Harris has become more moderate listed her campaign shift on immigration policy as a particular example, with other issues ranking in the 30s or less, percentage-wise. But 42% think her overall tone sounds more moderate compared to four years ago.

By contrast, the majority of voters surveyed think Trump has remained the same over the past four years, though 30% believe he is more conservative and 12% think he has moderated his stances.

Of those who said Trump has become more conservative, 61% think he has become more conservative in his position on abortion, 58% think he has regarding immigration, and roughly 43% believe he has on the issues of taxes and gun policy.

Of those who said Trump has become more moderate over time, 56% listed his stance on abortion as the main example, and 42% think his overall tone has become more moderate.

The issues of immigration and abortion have been major sticking points in the Harris and Trump campaigns, respectively. Harris has pledged to send more resources to the border as president, even while Republicans have blamed her actions as vice president for exacerbating the crisis. Trump has said he would veto a national abortion ban, but Democrats point to his U.S. Supreme Court nominations that enabled the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

The Voters’ Voice poll is one of only six national tracking polls in the United States. The poll sample consisted of 1,135 Republicans, 1,162 Democrats, and 263 non-leaning Independents, with a +/-2.1% margin of error.