People News – Another signal suggests that Xi Jinping’s power and authority are steadily diminishing.

On October 16, the state-run Xinhua News reported that from October 15 to 16, Xi Jinping visited Zhangzhou and Xiamen in Fujian province, accompanied by the provincial Party Secretary Zhou Zuyi and Governor Zhao Long. The Party media noted that "He Lifeng and relevant officials from central and state organs" accompanied Xi on the trip.

However, the surprising absence of Cai Qi, Xi’s close personal bodyguard and director of the General Office of the Communist Party of China, caught attention. In a one-minute video clip from CCTV, Xi appeared lethargic and weary during his visit to Zhangzhou, with a strained smile on his face. Notably absent from the entourage of accompanying officials were senior figures such as Cai Qi, Wang Xiaohong, and Wang Yi. Only He Lifeng, who looked just as weary as Xi, was present, standing among other officials with a forced smile.

In the past, whenever Xi visited local areas, Cai Qi was rarely absent, often acting as a personal bodyguard, with an entourage of enthusiastic onlookers and Party officials fawning over Xi, creating an air of grandeur. When Xi visited Gansu and Shaanxi in September, Shandong in May, and Chongqing in April of this year, Cai Qi was always by his side, symbolizing Xi's status and authority.

According to Xinhua, on October 14, Cai Qi accompanied Xi and five other members of the Politburo Standing Committee to Baobo Mountain for the cremation of Wu Bangguo. On October 11, Cai Qi met with Le Hong Liang, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of Vietnam, at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse. Xinhua's report of this meeting mentioned Xi Jinping only once.

Under normal circumstances, unless Cai Qi was bedridden at the 301 Hospital, it would be inconceivable for him not to accompany Xi to Fujian. After all, Cai Qi, Wang Xiaohong, and He Lifeng are all major figures from Xi’s Fujian faction. So why would they be missing from Xi's home base inspection?

The metaphor "the tree falls and the monkeys scatter" may be apt here. Xi Jinping’s power seems to be waning rapidly. Rumors suggest that a stroke may have been the trigger for the erosion of Xi's authority following the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee. Since then, Xi has largely disappeared from the public eye, and his influence in the media has significantly declined. Wang Xiaohong, a key figure in Xi's security apparatus, also refrained from invoking the usual slogans about Xi during his visit to Yunnan. Speculation has arisen that Wang Xiaohong has switched allegiances to Zhang Youxia and the two may have conspired to oppose Xi at the Third Plenary Session.

Recent developments suggest that Xi's power is being actively curtailed. Reports have emerged that two of Xi’s close military allies, Qin Shengxiang and Qin Shutong, have fallen from power. In addition, Xi's former confidants, Zhong Shaojun and Chen Guoqiang, have been reassigned to lower-ranking positions in the military.

On October 14-15, a military theory conference was held in Beijing, which Xi did not attend. Zhang Youxia gave a speech instead, reinforcing speculation that Xi’s grip on military power is slipping.

In terms of domestic and foreign policy, Xi’s influence seems to be shifting as well. After the Third Plenary Session, Premier Li Qiang’s prominence in the media has increased. Li recently received high-level treatment during his visit to Vietnam. In addition, the Chinese government injected nearly one trillion yuan into the stock market ahead of the National Day holiday, and on October 8, the Ministry of Finance announced aggressive expansionary fiscal policies—moves that reflect Li Qiang’s economic philosophy. Observers have noted that Li Qiang may be positioning himself as Xi’s successor.

On October 1, former Premier Wen Jiabao and former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Li Ruihuan made rare public appearances, sitting alongside Xi at the National Day banquet. Some interpreted this as a sign that Xi had to rely on reformist elders to maintain appearances, revealing a sense of compromise and helplessness behind the facade of harmony.

Exiled Hong Kong businessman Yuan Gongyi claimed, "They’ve already reached an agreement in Beidaihe. Xi is now in the process of retiring and will not seek re-election in the next term. The Party elders have brought Wen Jiabao out to arrange Xi’s exit." Australian-based commentator Jiang Wanzheng has also suggested that Xi would hand over power at the Third Plenary Session, gradually step down during the Fourth Plenary Session, and relinquish all his titles by the Sixth Plenary Session.

Xi's disastrous handling of U.S.-China relations and his provocative actions in the Taiwan Strait are two major liabilities of his foreign and military policies, and have contributed to dissatisfaction among the Party elites, second-generation revolutionaries, reformists, and the military. On October 15, in a congratulatory letter to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, Xi uncharacteristically softened his stance, saying that the success of both countries is an "opportunity" and that they should be "partners and friends." This marked a rare display of humility from Xi.

If Xi's power is indeed being dismantled, it is inevitable that a fierce battle over succession will follow. It is possible that Li Qiang may emerge as the strongest candidate to succeed Xi, not because of his exceptional abilities, but rather because his perceived weakness could make him more acceptable to various factions within the Party. He is seen as someone who could maintain stability while deferring to the Party elders and other powerful figures, including reformists and the second-generation revolutionaries. Moreover, Li’s ascent would likely reassure Xi, as he might avoid seeking retribution against Xi after taking power—a possibility that cannot be discounted with other figures like Wang Xiaohong or Cai Qi, who could easily switch loyalties if it benefits them.

First published in People's Report