Over the past month, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has undergone significant personnel changes. High-level positions such as Assistant Minister, Directors of the North American and Oceania Affairs Department, Vice President of the Foreign Affairs Institute, Directors of the Latin American and Caribbean Affairs Department, Directors of the Foreign Affairs Security Affairs Department, Directors of the International Economic Affairs Department, Ambassadors to Germany, Belarus, the European Union, and Vietnam have all been replaced. Analysts believe that the turmoil caused by Qin Gang's downfall has not yet subsided, and the CCP’s trust in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is unlikely to recover. This latest round of personnel changes is no less intense than the fallout from Qin Gang's removal.

The Downfall of Qin Gang

New details have recently emerged regarding Qin Gang's whereabouts. Former Chinese media personality and blogger Cai Shenkun shared on social media platforms X and YouTube that he received very reliable information about Qin Gang. Despite being spared severe punishment and retaining his deputy ministerial rank, Qin’s chances of returning to power are slim. Meanwhile, his lover, Fu Xiaotian, who reportedly exposed him, has been imprisoned and is expected to remain in jail for many years.

Previously, various rumors about Qin’s downfall flooded the internet. Some speculated that he was removed for leaking missile secrets to the U.S., while others claimed he had been arrested or killed, demoted to a minor position at the World Affairs Press with deputy bureau-level treatment, or implicated in political issues with the Ministry of National Defense. Gao Zhikai, the late Deng Xiaoping’s translator, said in an interview with Al Jazeera in August that Qin Gang, his friend of over 20 years, was involved in a corruption case, "quickly dealt with," and might be "somewhere in China, but you (the interviewer) will never see him."

Before the Third Plenary Session of the Central Committee, foreign media speculated that Qin's situation was not severe and that he might land safely. However, during the session, Qin was removed from his position as a member of the Central Committee. Despite this, the CCP still referred to him as "comrade" in its announcement, suggesting that although he lost all official posts, he remained a member of the Party organization. Afterward, rumors circulated that he was working at a publishing house. However, when a foreign media journalist visited the bookstore of the publisher in Beijing, employees stated that they had not heard of Qin Gang working there.

The Latest "Reliable" Information from a Former Media Professional

Cai Shenkun’s latest "reliable information" claims that Qin Gang’s downfall stemmed from a personal scandal. Qin allegedly failed to manage his private affairs properly and got involved with Fu Xiaotian, a complicated figure. Liu Jinguo, the current Secretary of the Secretariat, Deputy Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), and Director of the National Supervisory Commission, wanted to speak with Qin to understand the situation, but Qin, unable to handle the mental pressure, made a drastic decision—he attempted suicide. Although he was revived at the 301 Military Hospital, both Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan, who had strongly promoted Qin, were furious. They believed that if Qin had not chosen suicide and had directly explained the situation to them, the issue might have been resolved more easily.

Cai revealed that Fu Xiaotian began her relationship with Qin when he was appointed U.S. Ambassador. The two soon had an illegitimate child. At that time, Qin likely had no idea that within a year, he would be promoted to Foreign Minister. Fu, however, saw his bright future early on when he was appointed State Councilor and a member of the Central Committee. Thus, when Qin returned to Beijing to serve as Foreign Minister, Fu was not surprised. Qin arranged for her to live in a mansion in Los Angeles, assuring her that she would enjoy a comfortable future raising their child.

However, after taking office in Beijing, Qin became aware of the intense surveillance over vice-ministerial-level officials by national security agencies and other intelligence bodies. He refused all contact with Fu, including phone calls and text messages. Furious, Fu traveled to Beijing, determined to confront Qin, accusing him of abandoning her for a new lover. In desperation, Qin asked his sister to meet Fu and advise her to prioritize the greater good and Qin’s political future, offering to take custody of the child if necessary. But Fu was unmoved and eventually confided in a friend about her child with Qin. She even wrote a letter to the CCDI exposing him.

The materials ended up in the hands of Liu Jinguo, who, as Qin’s fellow hometown native and trusted ally of Xi, tried to discreetly warn Qin, suggesting they discuss how to report the matter to the higher authorities. However, rumors about Qin’s illegitimate child had already spread within the Party elite, and many, including Wang Yi, were envious or unhappy about Qin's rapid rise to Foreign Minister. They saw this as an opportunity to "bring Qin down."

Qin, fearing that the CCDI had come for him, believed he might be the next Bo Xilai. Consumed with fear, he ultimately attempted suicide. After learning of the incident, Xi Jinping was enraged but said, "Let him off this time, and severely punish Fu Xiaotian."

Qin Gang's Chances of a Comeback Are Slim

Qin Gang, who once held the position of State Councilor and reached the vice-national level, was one of the youngest leaders in the CCP. Due to his strong loyalty to Xi Jinping, he stood out in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. While serving as Director of Protocol, his meticulous attention to detail in welcoming and seeing off guests caught the attention of Xi and Peng Liyuan, earning their appreciation. As a result, Xi had him appointed Foreign Minister well in advance, replacing Wang Yi even before the National People’s Congress had officially passed the decision. However, after Qin was removed from office, the CCP awkwardly reinstated Wang Yi as Foreign Minister. It remains unclear how Wang Yi felt about this.

Qin Gang, along with Li Shangfu, was removed from his position as State Councilor last October. In late February of this year, Qin "resigned" from his position as a National People's Congress (NPC) representative, rather than being "dismissed." Due to the opaque nature of CCP politics, there was speculation for some time that Qin might still return to political life.

However, Cai Shenkun recently received reliable information suggesting that Qin Gang’s chances of a political comeback are very low. Cai noted that if Qin had not attempted suicide and had instead directly explained the situation to Xi, he might still be Foreign Minister today, and the situation would not have escalated. Cai drew a parallel to tennis star Peng Shuai, who publicly accused Zhang Gaoli of sexual misconduct, causing an international scandal, but ultimately Peng disappeared while Zhang remained unscathed. Fu Xiaotian, Qin’s lover, is reportedly an informant for the national security system and knew how to keep state secrets. When she exposed Qin’s scandal, it damaged the Party's image. However, Qin’s suicide altered the nature of the situation, leaving Xi Jinping with no choice but to remove him from office. Despite this, an investigation found no corruption or political disloyalty on Qin's part. Cai Shenkun concluded, "The possibility of his comeback is very low."