The tense atmosphere of "Red October" has spread. On the morning of October 14, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched a rare military drill around Taiwan, called "Joint Sword-2024B," claiming to "strongly deter Taiwan independence forces." However, these actions have created risks for international free navigation and global trade in the Taiwan Strait.

PLA's "Joint Sword-2024B" Military Exercise Around Taiwan 

According to Li Xi, spokesperson for the PLA Eastern Theater Command, the drill involved forces from the army, navy, air force, and rocket forces, taking place in the Taiwan Strait, as well as the northern, southern, and eastern parts of Taiwan. The training included activities such as "combat patrols, blocking key ports, sea and land strikes, and gaining comprehensive control." The spokesperson claimed this was a "strong deterrence" against pro-independence forces in Taiwan but did not specify when the drill would end.

Liu Dejun, spokesperson for China's (CCP's) Coast Guard, announced that on October 14, the Coast Guard's fleet, including vessels 2901, 1305, 1303, and 2102, conducted patrols around Taiwan, asserting that "this is a lawful action under the 'One China' principle to control Taiwan."

In response, Taiwan's President convened a national security meeting, and the Mainland Affairs Council issued a strong condemnation. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, at 6 a.m. on the 14th, also condemned the military drills as "irrational provocations" and emphasized that Taiwan had dispatched appropriate forces according to contingency plans to safeguard democracy and defend the sovereignty of the Republic of China (Taiwan).

It's worth noting that Taiwan's President, Lai Ching-te, recently delivered a "Motherland" speech during the National Day celebrations, in which he also referred to Russia occupying parts of mainland China. Lai reiterated that the Republic of China (ROC) was the legitimate government, founded after overthrowing the Qing dynasty, and emphasized that the CCP's intention to forcibly unify Taiwan was driven by hegemonic ambitions rather than national unity. Lai's remarks, asserting that Taiwan and the CCP are "not subordinate to each other," provoked a furious response from Beijing, which labeled him a "Taiwan independence provocateur." The CCP continues to threaten severe consequences for this "non-subordination" stance.

Since last Thursday, CCP state media has published a series of reports and commentaries condemning Lai's remarks. On Sunday, the Eastern Theater Command released a video titled "Prepared for Battle," claiming that its forces were ready for combat. Party media, such as People News, supported the military drills with commentary published at 6 a.m., criticizing Lai's "New Two-State Theory" as severely damaging peace in the Taiwan Strait.

What puzzles the world is that during Chiang Kai-shek’s rule, the Republic of China (ROC) aimed to retake the mainland, with laws clearly stating that the mainland was part of the ROC and refusing to recognize the CCP regime, which had been imported from Europe through the Soviet Union. However, during Lai Ching-te's time, the ROC acknowledged the CCP’s control over the mainland and abandoned the goal of retaking it. Instead, the CCP created a so-called "Anti-Secession Law," the first article of which explicitly states that it is aimed at opposing and curbing "Taiwan independence" forces, and could even sentence proponents of so-called "Taiwan independence" to death. This law seems clearly directed at the ROC leadership. Some analysts suggest that the CCP's logic is entirely inverted.

The map released by the Eastern Theater Command, which is responsible for the military drills around Taiwan, shows that the exercises will take place in nine regions around the island: two near Taiwan’s east coast, three near the west coast, one to the north of the island, and three around Kinmen and Matsu, which are offshore islands close to China’s coast.

According to Liberty Times in Taiwan, compared to the "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise held in late May this year, this time the Kinmen and western side of Penghu were not included in the drill area. However, the number of exercise zones around Taiwan has increased, with six areas around Taiwan proper and three areas around offshore islands. The new drills include additional objectives, such as "port and area blockades" and "sea and land strikes."

On October 13, the ROC Ministry of National Defense stated that the CCP aircraft carrier Liaoning had sailed into the waters near the Bashi Channel and was expected to possibly operate in the Western Pacific. This channel, located between Taiwan and the Philippines, holds strategic significance. The ROC military is closely monitoring the situation using integrated surveillance and reconnaissance systems.

On the same day, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, responsible for operations targeting Taiwan, released a training video titled Prepared for Battle. In the video, the character "旦" (dawn) is displayed as a map of Taiwan. The video also includes footage of PLA air and naval combat exercises, missile unit maneuvers, amphibious tanks, and assault boats landing on beaches. The accompanying text indicates that the "Eastern Theater Command troops are ready for battle at any time."

One senior Taiwanese security official, in an interview with foreign media, suggested that the CCP's military exercises were rehearsals for blockading Taiwan's northern and southern ports and cutting off international sea lanes, while also preventing foreign military intervention.

Military drills undermine the safety of international navigation and global trade.

The military drills have also raised concerns about the safety of international shipping and global trade. The timing of these exercises, just 20 days before the U.S. presidential election on November 5, is significant. Amid ongoing domestic turmoil, U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump has faced multiple assassination attempts, the most recent being on October 12, when a man carrying firearms and ammunition was arrested at a Trump rally in Riverside County, California. In addition, the U.S. is grappling with natural disasters like hurricanes and conflicts in the Middle East.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at the ASEAN Summit on October 11, expressed concerns about China’s (CCP’s) "increasingly dangerous and illegal activities" in disputed maritime regions. He pledged that the U.S. would continue to defend freedom of navigation in vital sea trade routes.

At the East Asia Summit, Blinken reiterated concerns about China’s provocations in the South and East China Seas, as well as the need for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Experts have emphasized the critical importance of these sea lanes to international trade, stressing that disruptions in these waters should be closely monitored by global markets and supply chains.

Marko Papic, chief global geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, highlighted the risks in an interview, stating, "In terms of trade value, this region and its sea lanes are the most valuable transport routes in the world, and conflict there poses clear risks to global shipping."

According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, sea trade through Asia accounts for 60% of global maritime trade, with shipping through the South China Sea alone constituting one-third of the global total.

Blinken also reaffirmed the U.S.'s commitment to working with ASEAN leaders to "maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait."