According to <People News>, with China's economy in decline, unrest among officials, the military, and the general population, and increasing international isolation, society has begun to destabilize. Over the past few months, various rumors about the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) top leadership have been circulating. On October 11, a report from the Chinese Journalists Protection Association and the Independent Journalists Investigation Association went viral on social media platform X, stating that former CCP Vice President and Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Wang Qishan, along with his secretary, family, and close staff, was placed under house arrest at his residence outside the East Gate of the Forbidden City in Beijing on the night of October 7. This information was reported by several overseas media outlets.

However, the reports did not specify who ordered or carried out the house arrest, the reasons for it, or the exact circumstances, and the CCP's official channels have not provided any information on this matter.

When I checked Chinese media sources, I noticed that on October 9, during the 12th National Congress of the Chinese Red Cross Society held in Beijing, Wang Qishan, the Honorary President of the Red Cross Society, did not attend or make any statements. Instead, Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong delivered the opening speech, and Vice President Han Zheng attended the opening ceremony and met with all representatives.

The Chinese Red Cross Society holds its congress every five years, and in previous years, it was common for party leaders to attend and give speeches. On June 29, 2018, Wang Qishan, then Vice President, was appointed as Honorary President during the 10th Red Cross Council. In September 2019, Wang also attended and participated in the opening ceremony. However, at this year’s closing ceremony on October 10, it was announced that according to the Red Cross Society’s charter, Han Zheng would now serve as Honorary President of the 12th Council.

On the same day, Fan Yifei, who served as Wang Qishan’s "Chief Financial Officer" when Wang was President of China Construction Bank, was sentenced to death with a reprieve.

Wang Qishan was last seen in public on September 30 at two events: the "National Day" reception and a concert. In video footage aired by state media, Wang appeared somber, with no smile on his face, and showed signs of deep concern. Behind him, several burly men in their twenties and thirties closely followed him, monitoring him intently, giving the impression of "guardianship" throughout the events. While other senior officials and elders clapped as Xi Jinping entered the venue, Wang Qishan notably refrained from applauding. Observers have speculated whether he had some premonition.

In addition to Fan Yifei's sentencing, Wang's former close aide, Dong Hong, a former Deputy Leader of the Central Inspection Group, was sentenced to death with reprieve in January 2022. Another confidant, Tian Huiyu, former President of China Merchants Bank, was also sentenced to death with reprieve in February 2024. Moreover, Wang’s longtime friend and mentor, Ren Zhiqiang, a prominent figure in China's real estate industry and a princeling, was handed an 18-year prison sentence. Despite Ren Zhiqiang's daughter, Ren Xinyi, publicly appealing to Xi Jinping for her seriously ill father to receive medical treatment outside of prison, her plea has fallen on deaf ears, with no response from Xi.

Within Wang Qishan’s family, his nephew-in-law Yao Qing, the grandson of former Vice Premier Yao Yilin, was arrested two years ago, reportedly linked to the case of Chen Feng, Chairman and co-founder of HNA Group. Chen Feng had close ties to Wang Qishan.

During Xi Jinping’s first term, Wang Qishan, serving as Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, played a pivotal role in Xi’s anti-corruption campaign, helping Xi eliminate numerous key officials from Jiang Zemin's faction. However, during Xi’s second term, Wang was appointed Vice President and appeared to be gradually sidelined, with Xi continuously "cutting his wings."

As a result, Wang Qishan has kept a low profile in recent years. Independent commentator Cai Shenkun once revealed that on July 16, 2016, during a dinner with over 20 close associates, Wang said, "This is the last time we will meet and have dinner together; there will likely be no more such opportunities. I am old and no longer capable of shielding everyone. Each of you should look after yourselves."

Cai Shenkun pointed out that this dinner foreshadowed Wang Qishan's lonely fate in his later years.

Su Tzu-yun, Director of the Institute of National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, told overseas Chinese media that Wang Qishan's small faction undoubtedly has corruption issues. However, the main reason for Xi Jinping's actions against Wang is that Xi sees Wang as a threat. The CCP’s tradition is to eliminate those who have outlived their usefulness. Xi Jinping is now systematically purging Wang Qishan’s subordinates as a way to solidify his own position.

Some believe, however, that it is unlikely Wang Qishan has been placed under house arrest. First, Wang played a crucial role in helping Xi consolidate power and secure his re-election. During his five-year term as Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Wang led a sweeping anti-corruption campaign targeting officials from previous administrations who were not aligned with Xi. This resulted in the political purge of 440 provincial and military officials, including six vice-national or national-level figures like Zhou Yongkang, Guo Boxiong, Xu Caihou, Sun Zhengcai, Ling Jihua, and Su Rong. In addition, 43 members of the 18th Central Committee and nine members of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection were removed, along with over 8,900 departmental-level officials. When Xi faced internal opposition during his constitutional amendment push, especially from the seven former Politburo Standing Committee members, Wang volunteered to confront them by using evidence of their corruption and family wealth, helping Xi pass the amendment smoothly. Second, Wang has long since retired, and having been sidelined, he poses no political threat to Xi. It would be highly unusual for Xi to risk his reputation and face accusations of betrayal by taking action against Wang personally. If Xi were to act against Wang, it would demoralize those currently serving him and force them to reconsider their own future.

Editor: Li Yuyuan